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Discussion in 'Charlton' started by lardiman, Mar 19, 2020.
We are 2 weeks behind spain and italy though
Every pandemic in history has ALWAYS had at least 2 waves.
The second wave of the Asian flu in the 1950s was far more deadly than the first.
Our deadliest ever pandemic, the bubonic plague had 5 waves and lasted 5 years.
We can hope that by the time the second wave of Coronavirus hits us, we have a vaccine available to everyone.
This is why it is vital that we buy every day that we can now, by slowing down this first wave.
Each passing day brings us 24 hours closer to having that vaccine.
The death rate of infected people in countries that have well developed health care systems is well under 10%.
When this pandemic hits Africa, that rate could rocket up to 20%, 30% or even higher.
The health services in many countries will collapse, which will lead to other fatalities as well.
For that reason as well, we need to buy time for Africa and other developing parts of the world.
If we can mass vaccinate in time, a million lives or more might be saved there.
Perhaps there will not be enough time.
But we have to try.
We must be able to look back in a few years and know (whatever happens) that we could not do any more to prevent it.
There are mutterings that a UK company 'may' have a vaccine in September. Obviously there may be a gap before it becomes commercially available. Again rumour is they could begin to prepare the route to this while still testing, but that's a high risk strategy. But hey, a glimmer of light is more than welcome.
Should a vaccine be available in months rather than over a year, it should be given first to our front line medical & care staff, then other essential workers.
IF it is completely safe.
I imagine a vaccine might physically exist in 4 or 5 months, but it will take time to test it properly.
We can't use our NHS workers as guinea pigs, on top of everything else they are being asked to do.
It would be totally unacceptable for large numbers of them to suffer some kind of serious unexpected side-effect a year or two down the line.
Small word of caution for people pinning hopes on vaccines.
They have spent billions upon billions and years and years trying to find vaccines for other viruses like HIV, Malaria, Ebola, even the common cold without success.
But we do have Flu vaccines every year, tailored to the current strain.
On a global scale Pandemics are going to be a bigger threat than War in future.
What we learn from this one will be put to good use to fight future ones much more effectively.
What we have also learned is to tell the Asians to stop eating weird sh1t...!
... while we in the UK are getting ready to tuck into American beef dripping with growth hormone, and Kentucky fried chlorinated chicken.
Yeah. Quite right. Sushi is disgusting.
Two ways of measuring the impact of Coronavirus deaths in various countries (1st May);
1. Casualties as absolute numbers
2. Casualties as a proportion of population (per 100,000)
Neither of these charts is more or less valid than the other, since every death is a tragedy for the loved ones of the victim.
But the lower chart gives an indication of the impact on particular nations, with regard to their population size.
1 person in every 1,504 has died from Coronavirus in Belgium.
1 person in every 2,475 has died from Coronavirus in the UK.
1 person in every 5,181 has died from Coronavirus in the USA.
So the relative impact on Belgian society is likely to be greater than the impact on US society,
even though the US has suffered about nine times the number of casualties as Belgium.
I think we need to look at population density as well lardy
I agree that will be a factor, along with average age, ethnic mix etc.
Belgium is claiming that its number of reported deaths is higher than that of all other listed countries, because it is the only country which is including 'suspected' Coronavirus deaths in care homes as well as 'confirmed' Coronavirus deaths there.
There are bound to be some discrepancies of that nature.
Not every country gathers its information in exactly the same way or by exactly the same rules.
And of course (Mr Trump) this is not some ghastly kind of competition.
The numbers are awful, but they are what they are. No political leader should be trying to make capital out of them.
And opposition politicians should think well before attempting to either.
LONDON CONGESTION CHARGE INFORMATION UPDATE:
I was not aware of this, but the Congestion Charge in London was suspended some weeks ago.
Presumably to allow key workers to travel more easily.
The Charge was reinstated from Monday 18th May at its current level (£11.50 per day I believe)
and for the current time periods.
From Monday 22nd June the Congestion Charge is rising to £15 per day,
and it will apply for all 7 days of the week.
(I don't currently know if it will be 24 hours per day)
There may also be changes to the area covered by the Congestion Charge,
and changes to the separate ULEZ Charge.
Full details of these changes are not that easy to find on the internet at the moment.
I assume the Mayor of London will release details closer to June 22nd.
From what I gather so far, reinstating the CC was part of the conditions demanded by the Government before it was willing to give a bail-out package of several hundred million pounds to the GLA.
But raising the charge to £15 and changing the CC to 7 days per week were apparently NOT part of the Government's conditions. Mayor of London Sadiq Knhan decided on those changes himself - in order to help create large "car free areas" in Central London.
Any shop owners who have a problem with this policy should take up the matter with him.
Also I hear that there will be a reimbursement scheme for NHS workers who have to drive in the CC zone to do their jobs.
NOT an exemption scheme. They will still have to pay the Charge.
But they will get (some?) of their money back at some point.
That's very generous. Thank you Mr Mayor.
Lockdown rule changes:
From 1st June
Car showrooms & open air markets can open
From 15th June
All other shops can open
As long as the shops are using safe social distance procedures ...2M...
Pubs and restaurants - nope, not yet
Football - not as we know it
County Durham and beauty spots - use your own judgment
An overview of Coronavirus deaths in 6 worst affected European countries (28th May)
The UK is the only country where recorded deaths per 24 hours is still in the region of 150-300 on average.
In many other countries the daily fatality rate is now down to single figures.
In terms of deaths per head of population, I think Belgium is still worst off (their population is only about 12% of the UK population)
but by all other measurements the UK is the worst affected country in Europe.
For those still wishing to comply with the lockdown meeting rules, the BBC News website has summarized them thus;
(these are for the general population, not those regarded as more vulnerable / shielding )
This information is accurate as of 1st June, for the forseeable future (until we are told there have been new changes).
I'm very pleased that I can now visit my old mum in Charlton without breaking the lockdown rules
I'll still maintain the 2m distance and not go into her house, but I can do some gardening for her now (access via a path around the outside of the house) and chat from the front garden to the front doorstep.
I very much hope that a second wave does not lead to local lockdowns,
which might prevent me from visiting her again.
Should that happen I will probably obey, despite the Cummings affair.
Not out of respect for the Government, which has lost my trust. But to try to keep my family safe.
Hopefully that will be a nice tonic for you both.
Infection rates in Iran have risen back to the point when they were at their highest 2 months ago...
Basically, from the beginning to the end of April, the infection rate fell from 3,000 per day to less than 1,000 per day.
But that trend has completely reversed during May.
Infection rates are now right back up above 3,000 per day.
The mortality rates may not be as high again yet, possibly because their Medical facilities are more prepared this time around.
But this infection rate data should serve as a grave warning to other countries who believe they have come out of the first wave, as Iran believed it had.
All the hard work and sacrifice there to get infection rates down seems now to have been in vain.